MD 1463 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024
Areas affected…portions of northwestern into north-central
Colorado
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 282208Z – 282345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A couple instances of severe hail or wind gusts may
accompany the stronger storms through the remainder of the
afternoon. The severe threat should remain isolated overall, so a WW
issuance is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION…MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts an overall increase
in storm coverage and intensity across portions of northwestern into
north-central CO, where observed MESH cores are suggesting hail may
be approaching 1 inch in diameter in spots. These storms are
intensifying within a adequately sheared troposphere (modestly
elongated hodographs based on RAP forecasting soundings), with low
and mid-level lapse rates in the 9+ C/km range. As such, strong and
sustained updrafts should obtain multicell and supercell structures
through the afternoon, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and
wind. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance
is not expected.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/28/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…PUB…BOU…CYS…RIW…GJT…SLC…
LAT…LON 40281024 41130821 41220623 40650505 40010498 39440547
39220678 39380816 39620888 40281024
