MD 1464 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024
Areas affected…portions of northern North Dakota
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 282224Z – 290000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated severe hail/wind are possible this afternoon.
Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not
currently expected.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms are intensifying along a pronounced
baroclinic boundary that resides immediately ahead of an approaching
500 mb vort max along the ND/MT border region. Along this boundary,
8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates are present, boosting the 0-3 km CAPE to
over 150 J/kg in spots (per 22Z mesoanalysis). Given modest
deep-layer shear, shorter-lived multicells capable of isolated
instances of severe hail and wind are expected. If more dominant,
cellular convection can anchor to the boundary for any appreciable
period of time, a landspout tornado cannot be ruled out.
Nonetheless, given how sparse and marginal the severe threat is
expected to be, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/28/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FGF…BIS…
LAT…LON 49080303 49200144 48740018 48239969 47709973 47360017
47300058 47510127 47960196 49080303
