MD 0151 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA…NORTHERN VIRGINIA…WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025
Areas affected...Northeastern West Virginia...northern
Virginia...western Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 051919Z - 052115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail threat may increase with
thunderstorm development this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating along a secondary cold frontal boundary
located across West Virginia into western Pennsylvania has allowed
for convective development over the last 30-60 minutes. Temperatures
have warmed into the 60s ahead of this boundary, yielding around 500
J/kg of SBCAPE to develop. Looking at the mid-levels, a 500 mb
90-100 kt jet continues to move northward across the area,
supporting 0-6 km shear around 90-100 kts. CAM guidance suggests
further development is possible along the boundary through the
afternoon. Given strong shear profiles, some loosely organized cells
may pose a risk for damaging wind and hail. Convective trends will
be monitored over the next couple of hours for potential watch
issuance.
..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/05/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
LAT...LON 39938027 40838032 41578055 41928038 42037992 41967936
41587829 41187804 40667792 40227778 39567774 39047784
38577812 38147854 37937878 38127951 38578025 39368046
39938027
