MD 0152 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST FL AND THE UPPER KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 0152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024
Areas affected…Far southeast FL and the Upper Keys
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 181835Z – 182000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A brief weak tornado and localized strong to marginally
severe wind gusts will remain possible with a ragged squall line
spreading east-northeast across far southeast Florida and the Upper
Keys.
DISCUSSION…A ragged QLCS with moderate forward speed of 25-30 kts
is ongoing from the tip of the Everglades across the Middle Keys
into the FL Straits. Based on its current track it should spread
across the Upper Keys and the greater Miami metro area during the
next couple hours. A diffuse warm front has advanced north as
advertised by morning guidance with low 70s surface dew points in
place across the southeast peninsula to mid 70s in the Keys. Despite
this rich moisture, instability remains quite limited by the poor
mid-level lapse rates sampled in the morning RAOBs and more recently
by AMDAR data. As such, convection may remain largely sub-severe as
it spreads east-northeast. But conditionally, an enlarged low-level
hodograph per area TDWRs and strong deep-layer shear will support a
threat for a brief weak tornado (peak gust estimates around 65-95
mph) and locally strong wind gusts of 45-60 mph. This conditional
potential will diminish in the wake of the QLCS passage as low-level
winds become veered.
..Grams/Hart.. 02/18/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…KEY…
LAT…LON 24668092 25328084 25748063 25978031 26048013 25807998
24888038 24668092
