MD 0153 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024
Areas affected…Northern New York
Concerning…Heavy snow
Valid 182301Z – 190300Z
SUMMARY…Periodic snow squalls will be possible in the coming hours
as a cold front approaches northern New York.
DISCUSSION…Recent regional radar composites and surface
observations show a persistent snow band moving east across
southeast Ontario. This band is primarily being driven by ascent
along a cold front – likely through a shallow layer from the surface
to around 700 mb where lapse rates are on the order of 7 C/km based
on recent RAP mesoanalyses and forecast soundings. The snow
band/cold front is expected to continue to push east into upstate NY
within the next few hours. The combination of persistent frontal
ascent, steep low-level lapse rates, and 25-30 mph wind gusts (which
have been observed across southeast Ontario with the passage of the
band/front) suggests snow squall conditions will be possible. Snow
squall potential will likely be greatest along the eastern shores of
Lake Ontario with diminishing confidence in snow squall potential
with east/southeastern extent as low-level lapse rates begin to
diminish due to the onset of nocturnal cooling.
..Moore.. 02/18/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…BTV…ALY…BGM…BUF…
LAT…LON 42747618 42677673 42737739 43037864 43187890 43357895
43527872 43507764 43587718 43747689 44307641 44787553
44977489 44977457 44757421 44577407 44287405 43117527
42887565 42747618
