MD 1556 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1556
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024
Areas affected…eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 080938Z – 081115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Several supercells have formed and may pose a large hail
threat for a few hours as they move east-southeast early this
morning.
DISCUSSION…Elevated supercells have developed across eastern New
Mexico as a mid-level trough approaches from the northwest. These
storms have developed in a region with modest, but sufficient
instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and moderate shear (35-40 knots) per
SPC mesoanalysis. Expect this environment to shift slowly east which
may allow for some stronger storms to persist into the western Texas
Panhandle near daybreak. MRMS MESH suggests 2+ inch hail is possible
in some of the larger cores. This seems significantly overestimated,
but some 1 to 1.5 inch hail is possible.
This threat is expected to be too isolated/short lived for a severe
thunderstorm watch.
..Bentley/Smith.. 07/08/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LUB…AMA…ABQ…
LAT…LON 35570484 35760425 35810385 35890317 35840283 35730246
35620235 34870217 34260236 34060288 34080368 34450457
34830486 35570484
