MD 1559 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024
Areas affected…North-central New Mexico
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 081833Z – 082030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated, marginally severe hail and strong/severe wind
gusts are possible as storms develop and move southeastward. A watch
is not likely.
DISCUSSION…Surface dewpoints have help in the upper 40s to low 50s
F in north-central New Mexico. With very modest mid-level ascent
along the base of the departing upper-level trough, a few storms
have deepened early this afternoon within the terrain. Effective
shear of 30-35 kts will promote some storm organization. Much of the
shear is concentrated in the lowest 6 km with fairly minimal shear
above that level. Despite steep mid-level lapse rates, hail size
should be tempered by this less favorable wind profile. Steep
low-level lapse rates will support isolated strong/severe wind gusts
as well. Cloud cover and drier air moving into the northeastern
plains will likely limit how far southeast this activity will
progress this afternoon.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/08/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…PUB…ABQ…GJT…
LAT…LON 36490707 37090644 37160462 36280416 35270446 34780531
34750575 34950626 35710695 36490707
