MD 0157 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024
Areas affected…northern Florida into southeast Georgia and
southern South Carolina
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 231725Z – 232030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A gradual increase in convective coverage is possible over
the next several hours, and localized strong gusts may occur.
DISCUSSION…A strong upper trough with cooling aloft continues to
rapidly overspread the region, with a cold front now extending from
central SC into the FL Panhandle. A narrow plume of warming
temperatures and dewpoints to around 60 F extend from the FL
Panhandle across southeast GA and toward southern SC, and is
contributing to up to 500 J/kg SBCAPE.
Modified soundings from the area depict generally shallow storm
potential, however, if cooling aloft can remove the midlevel warm
layer prior to the cold front moving offshore, a brief period may
exist for deeper convection. Given the strong deep-layer wind
fields, but generally weak instability, localized wind damage would
appear to be the main concern.
..Jewell/Hart.. 02/23/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…CHS…CAE…JAX…FFC…TAE…
LAT…LON 30248148 30138246 30128256 30228292 30418318 30708341
31018342 31328332 31568289 31838239 32588165 33718090
33568021 33157970 32727976 32398033 32008076 31588109
31028134 30668137 30248148
