MD 1581 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1581
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024
Areas affected…Portions of the central High Plains
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 112222Z – 120015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing across the
central High Plains may pose an isolated severe wind and hail risk
through the early evening hours. This threat should remain fairly
localized/limited; watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Over the past 1-2 hours, isolated to scattered
high-based thunderstorms have developing along and west of a lee
surface trough within a deeply mixed, but marginally buoyant air
mass. More recently, thunderstorm longevity has been relatively
short lived (around 30-60 minutes) based on radar and GOES
IR/cloud-top temperature trends. This is attributable to somewhat
meager buoyancy profiles on the periphery of deeper/higher-quality
moisture to the east across the Plains. Dewpoint depressions near 40
F and low-level lapse rates near 9 C/km also suggest a very deeply
mixed boundary layer is in place, which will favor rapid
undercutting outflows given poor low-level storm-relative winds.
Thunderstorm coverage may remain limited to near/along the surface
trough axis given increasing MLCIN with eastward extent and
south/southeasterly storm motions. A few more organized cells are
possible given 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, but the general
expectation for the next few hours is for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to primarily pose a severe wind threat given the
favorable low-level thermodynamics for strong convective outflow.
..Moore/Gleason.. 07/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LBF…DDC…UNR…GLD…PUB…BOU…CYS…BYZ…
LAT…LON 37920263 38090307 38490354 38960412 43660535 44140529
44820530 45230503 45500459 45500409 45320356 44820302
44370266 43890242 42130195 40310130 39800117 38880131
38330150 38000172 37910218 37920263
