MD 1582 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1582
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024
Areas affected…Northeast Kansas to northwest Missouri
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 120336Z – 120500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…An isolated severe hail risk may persist across northwest
Missouri into northeast Kansas for the next 1-2 hours; however,
long-term trends should favor destructive storm interactions and an
overall weakening trend. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Ongoing thunderstorms across the broader Kansas City
region have had a history of producing severe hail (up to 1.75
inches) over roughly the past hour. While individual storm longevity
has been fairly limited, deep convection continues to develop along
the south/southwestern flank of the convective outflow.
Additionally, new convective towers are noted to the northwest into
northeast KS as a weak mid-level perturbation pivots into the
region. Modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 knots) is expected to
continue to limit storm longevity/organization, and storm
motions/propagation to the south/southeast along the developing
initiation axis should favor upscale growth and destructive storm
interactions with time. However, prior to upscale growth more
discrete, intense updraft pulses may realize the moderately unstable
air mass (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE based on the 00Z TOP sounding and
recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates) and continue to support a
sporadic severe hail threat within a narrow corridor from northeast
KS to northwest MO.
..Moore/Gleason.. 07/12/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…EAX…OAX…TOP…
LAT…LON 38449413 38919508 39259583 39569630 39819638 39989629
40089607 40059552 39779476 39439407 39179378 38939364
38729361 38569363 38489369 38429379 38409386 38449413
