MD 1596 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1596
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Areas affected…portions of southwestern South Dakota
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 132035Z – 132200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…An isolated severe hail/wind threat may accompany any
multicell or supercell that can develop and become sustained this
afternoon. Given the spatially and temporally constricted nature of
the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Visible satellite imagery depicts agitated CU/attempt
at convective initiation over the Black Hills of South Dakota,
driven by afternoon peak heating, some orographic lift, and the
approach of a 500 mb vort max (per 20Z mesoanalysis). RAP forecast
soundings depict a well-mixed boundary layer extending to 700 mb,
suggesting that any storms that can become sustained will likely be
high-based in nature. Forecast soundings show hodographs of modest
length and curvature (hence 30 kts of effective bulk shear) that
will gradually enlarge/lengthen through the afternoon, supporting
multicells and perhaps a few splitting supercells. While some MLCINH
remains, over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is present, which could support
strong enough storms to potentially produce large hail and severe
gusts, especially if a sustained supercell structure can
materialize. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated,
so a WW issuance is not anticipated.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/13/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…UNR…
LAT…LON 44510381 44570372 44580358 44520329 44430291 44240236
44120217 43840198 43620194 43480228 43460281 43540342
43630355 43940380 44510381
