MD 1598 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1598
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Areas affected…portions of central Wisconsin
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523…
Valid 132057Z – 132200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523
continues.
SUMMARY…A narrow corridor of focused damaging winds (perhaps
severe) may accompany a small bowing segment over the next couple of
hours. Longevity of this bowing complex however is uncertain.
DISCUSSION…MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts a small bowing
complex that has recently materialized over portions of far western
WI in the past hour. KARX regional radar shows a rear-inflow jet
present, with inbound velocities approaching 80 kts about 1 km AGL.
Assuming efficient downward momentum transport, the ongoing complex
may be producing damaging, perhaps severe gusts in abundance. The
complex is currently traversing a buoyancy gradient, with MLCAPE
exceeding 2000 J/kg amid 30+ kts of effective bulk shear. However,
the ARX VAD profile suggests that vertical wind shear (including
low-level shear) is not particularly strong, so questions remain
regarding how long the bow echo complex will last. Nonetheless,
there is some potential for a continued narrow swath of focused
damaging winds (perhaps severe, with gusts peaking in the 65-80 mph
range) over the next couple of hours.
..Squitieri.. 07/13/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…GRB…ARX…MPX…
LAT…LON 44629194 44639114 44299028 43948991 43679016 43629065
43799132 44009181 44309226 44409229 44629194
