MD 1699 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1699
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024
Areas affected…Western New York and far northern Pennsylvania
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 241730Z – 241900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts.
DISCUSSION…Scattered thunderstorms will continue to mature across
western New York and northern Pennsylvania this afternoon. Continued
heating and low-level moisture advection will increase instability
this afternoon, peaking around 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The BUF VWP
shows around 30 knots of effective shear which will support some
updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat
with isolated large hail possible.
A severe thunderstorm watch does not appear imminent, but if several
stronger updrafts can congeal and mature, a small severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon/early evening.
..Bentley/Thompson.. 07/24/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…BGM…BUF…CTP…CLE…
LAT…LON 42047682 41927726 41637878 41957996 42128019 42407954
42767891 43097905 43497844 43417721 43467639 43057626
42357657 42047682
