MD 0171 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 26… FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Areas affected…southeast Lower Michigan
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26…
Valid 280713Z – 280915Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26
continues.
SUMMARY…A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of
southeast Lower Michigan over the next 1 to 2 hours. Additional
weather watch issuance will not be needed, but an extension in area
could be done if necessary.
DISCUSSION…The latest high-resolution radar from Detroit shows a
disjointed line of strong to severe storms ongoing 30 to 40 statute
miles to the north of Detroit. The line of storms is being supported
by a subtle shortwave trough, and an associated vorticity max,
located over Lower Michigan evident on water vapor imagery. RAP
analysis data suggests the MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg, and WSR-88D
VWPs have 45 to 50 knots of 0-6 km shear. This should support
isolated supercells capable of producing wind damage and isolated
large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 may also
be sufficient for a brief tornado as well.
..Broyles/Goss.. 02/28/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DTX…
LAT…LON 43288248 43438270 43398309 43268340 43098360 42868376
42678383 42498386 42338381 42218354 42308305 42498260
42888239 43288248
