MD 1727 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE…EASTWARD TO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1727
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024
Areas affected…the Nebraska Panhandle…eastward to south-central
South Dakota and central Nebraska
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 292025Z – 292300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Storm development expected in the next 60 to 90 minutes is
expected, with an associated increase in severe potential
thereafter. WW issuance may be required.
DISCUSSION…Latest visible satellite imagery shows gradual
evolution of TCU/small CB from the increasing cu field across
eastern Wyoming and into western portions of the Nebraska Panhandle.
The convection is developing with a modestly unstable environment,
but greater CAPE is indicated with eastward extent toward central
Nebraska/south-central South Dakota, where 1000 to 2000 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE is indicated.
With that said, a rather dry environment is observed above the
boundary layer — confirmed by the special 19Z RAOB from KLBF
showing only 1.05 PW. As such, questions regarding coverage of
stronger convection continue to linger.
While weak low-level flow is indicated, cloud-layer shear is
sufficient for updraft organization, as flow in the 500 to 300 mb
layer increases from around 25 kt to around 50 kt. This suggests
that any storm which can become sustained, will be capable of
producing hail and damaging gusts. Depending upon the degree of
convective development and eventual coverage of robust storms, WW
issuance may be required.
..Goss/Gleason.. 07/29/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FSD…ABR…LBF…UNR…CYS…
LAT…LON 41590368 42600330 43320130 43579936 42209881 41219992
41050251 41590368
