MD 1728 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1728
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024
Areas affected…far southeastern Montana eastward to the central
Dakotas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 292038Z – 292145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated storm development is occurring from far
southeastern Montana into west-central South Dakota, and should
increase across the western and central Dakotas over the next 1 to 2
hours. WW issuance may be needed in the next hour.
DISCUSSION…Latest visible satellite and radar imagery show a lone
thunderstorm developing over Meade County in South Dakota, and
TCU/CB growth over far southeastern Montana along the southwestern
North Dakota/northwestern South Dakota border area. The convection
is developing on the western fringe of the CAPE axis, with 1000 to
2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE observed either side of the North
Dakota/South Dakota border.
Storm development — though overall coverage appears likely to
remain widely scattered — is expected to increase over the next 1
to 2 hours. Though low-level flow remains weak across the area,
moderate mid-level flow is contributing to sufficient shear for
organized/rotating updrafts. Presuming sufficient storm coverage
evolves, risk for damaging winds and hail with the stronger cells
will likely warrant WW issuance — perhaps within the next hour or
so.
..Goss/Gleason.. 07/29/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ABR…BIS…UNR…BYZ…
LAT…LON 44260364 45250443 46880368 47740077 46609870 44689950
43890141 44260364
