MD 1857 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024
Areas affected…portions of coastal North Carolina
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 071520Z – 071745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A brief tornado cannot be ruled out through early
afternoon. A WW issuance is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION…Tropical Storm Debby continues to meander off of the
coastline of the Carolinas as widespread rain/clouds from outer rain
bands continue to overspread inland areas. Regional VADs
(particularly LTX) depict sizable low-level hodographs and nearly
300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. However, despite mid to upper 70s F
contributing to over 1000 J/kg SB/MLCAPE, boundary-layer lapse rates
remains quite poor (both the 12Z MHX observed sounding and 15Z
mesoanalysis show 5 C/km in the 0-3 km layer). Given the favorable
low-level shear, a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out,
especially over far southern NC, where some breaks in the clouds
were noted. Nonetheless, overall tornado coverage is expected to be
sparse, and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/07/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MHX…RAH…ILM…
LAT…LON 33617860 34107878 35117808 35857677 35957595 35587538
35117536 34557663 33767783 33617860
