MD 1868 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN UTAH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Areas affected…Southern Utah into western and central Arizona
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 081921Z – 082115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely near the
higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV this afternoon/evening.
Isolated damaging gusts are possible. Limited storm organization
suggests a WW is not expected.
DISCUSSION…As of 1915 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery
showed initial thunderstorm development was ongoing over the higher
terrain of southern UT and across central AZ. Linked to robust
monsoonal moisture return and an MCV beneath an expansive western US
ridge, additional storm development is likely through the afternoon
hours. As remaining inhibition weakens, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE will
support scattered high-based thunderstorms across the higher terrain
of southern UT and ahead of a weak MCV over central AZ. PWATs of
0.7-1 inch and relatively deep inverted-V profiles from area model
soundings will favor strong downdrafts with some potential for
damaging outflow winds as storms become established.
However, area VADs show flow aloft is quite limited (generally less
than 20 kt) beneath the ridge. Given the limited shear, a relatively
disorganized multi-cell storm mode is expected to limit the severe
risk. Given the limited organization potential a WW is unlikely at
this time.
..Lyons/Hart.. 08/08/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TWC…FGZ…SLC…PSR…VEF…
LAT…LON 36931405 38611328 38801303 39171174 38921043 38511012
37671053 36511149 35871180 35261154 34271065 33840984
33250982 31601041 31711119 31821138 32121193 32641257
33731347 34721405 36931405
