MD 0187 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Areas affected…Parts of northwest Wisconsin
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 032312Z – 040115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A strong storm or two capable of locally damaging gusts
cannot be ruled out during the next few hours across parts of
northwest Wisconsin.
DISCUSSION…Latest radar data from MPX indicates widely scattered
thunderstorms streaming northward across northwest Wisconsin,
largely aided by strong low-level warm-air advection beneath the
left exit region of a robust upper-level jet streak. Given the
focused synoptic and mesoscale ascent, this activity will likely
continue for the next few hours, before a cold front sweeps eastward
across the area in the 00-02Z time frame. Prior to the frontal
passage, around 50 kt of effective shear (characterized by a
long/mostly straight hodograph) could support a marginal supercell
or two capable of locally damaging winds. Downward momentum transfer
to the surface will be aided by an influx of steep low-level lapse
rates amid 40-50 kt of flow in the lowest 1 km AGL (per ARX VWP
data). However, limited boundary-layer moisture and related
surface-based instability should temper the overall severe risk.
..Weinman/Darrow.. 03/03/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MQT…GRB…DLH…ARX…MPX…
LAT…LON 45059237 45469255 45989256 46509236 46799197 46879144
46709069 46429018 45518994 44869015 44479070 44369131
44479186 45059237
