MD 1880 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST CO…SOUTHWEST NE…FAR SOUTHEAST WY…AND FAR NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1880
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024
Areas affected…Northeast CO…southwest NE…far southeast
WY…and far northwest KS
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 111917Z – 112115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…The potential for a few severe thunderstorms capable of
producing large hail and severe wind gusts will increase over the
next few hours. A watch may eventually be needed for parts of the
area.
DISCUSSION…Boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening and
expanding along an east/west-oriented confluence zone extending from
southeastern WY into the southwestern NE Panhandle — and isolated
convective initiation is underway here. Additional attempts at
development are ongoing along a lee trough extending northward
across southwest WY. Given this focused mesoscale ascent and
continued diurnal heating of a relatively moist boundary layer
(middle/upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints), current expectation is
for a few thunderstorms to evolve/intensify during the next couple
hours before spreading east-southeastward. The CYS VWP is sampling a
unidirectional westerly shear profile (around 35 kt of 0-6 km
shear), and this will continue increasing to around 40-50 kt with
the approach of a midlevel jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms may
intensify into organized clusters and/or supercell structures,
posing a risk of large hail (generally up to 2 inches in diameter)
and severe wind gusts to around 70 mph.
Modest large-scale ascent and substantial MLCINH with eastward
extent cast uncertainty on the overall coverage of the severe
threat, though trends are being monitored for a possible watch this
afternoon.
..Weinman/Hart.. 08/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LBF…GLD…BOU…CYS…
LAT…LON 40690381 40960413 41270421 41630423 41970412 42180382
42190335 41670208 40830143 39410123 39000162 38940247
39190294 40240355 40690381
