MD 1881 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF UT INTO WESTERN CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1881
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024
Areas affected…Parts of UT into western CO
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 112046Z – 112245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated severe gusts and perhaps some hail are possible
this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…Convection is gradually increasing across parts of UT
into western CO this afternoon. Strong heating of a relatively moist
environment has resulted in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE
increasing above 500 J/kg in some areas. This region is on the
southern periphery of modest midlevel west-northwesterlies
associated with a shortwave trough moving across the northern
Rockies/High Plains. Effective shear of 20-30 kt could support at
least transient storm organization through the afternoon. While some
hail cannot be ruled out, isolated severe gusts will likely become
the primary threat with time, as outflows grow and intensify within
the well-mixed environment.
..Dean/Hart.. 08/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…GJT…SLC…
LAT…LON 39221384 39911330 40020948 39990747 38890739 37600802
37460952 37311366 37821377 39221384
