MD 1882 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SD INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1882
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024
Areas affected…Portions of southwestern SD into far northwestern
NE
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618…
Valid 112053Z – 112230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618
continues.
SUMMARY…Severe wind and large hail threat continues across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 618 — especially with an organized
southeastward-moving cluster.
DISCUSSION…The latest radar data from KUDX depicts an organized
cluster of thunderstorms (with an intense embedded supercell)
tracking southeastward at around 30 kt. This activity will continue
to be aided by 40 kt of 0-6 km shear (per UDX VWP data) oriented
perpendicular to the associated gust front. Additionally,
pre-convective low-level lapse rates continue to diurnally steepen
amid middle/upper 50s dewpoints — which should also support
maintained storm intensity with southeastward extent. The primary
concern is severe wind gusts (generally up to 70 mph) and large hail
to around 2 inches in diameter. While less certain, a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out given the embedded supercell mode and
moist/backed east-southeasterly low-level flow to the east/southeast
of these storms.
..Weinman.. 08/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LBF…UNR…
LAT…LON 43710293 44020276 44110257 44080226 43800176 43330160
42920199 42870257 43120296 43440321 43710293
