MD 1883 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618…619… FOR FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA…WESTERN NEBRASKA…NORTHEAST COLORADO…FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1883
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024
Areas affected…Far Southwest South Dakota…Western
Nebraska…Northeast Colorado…Far Northwest Kansas
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618…619…
Valid 112218Z – 120015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618, 619
continues.
SUMMARY…A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will
continue across the central Plains over the next few hours. There is
a localized potential for hail over 2 inches in diameter.
DISCUSSION…Water vapor imagery shows northwest flow over much of
the central U.S., with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the
central High Plains. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
located from southwestern South Dakota extending southward into far
eastern Colorado. Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms are
ongoing just to the east of the boundary. The RAP suggests that the
storms are near an axis of instability, with MLCAPE just to the east
of the front estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In
addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs also show moderate deep-layer shear
in place across much of the central High Plains. 0-6 km shear
appears to be in the 40 to 50 knot range along and near the
instability axis. This will continue to support supercell
development over the next few hours. Severe wind gusts and isolated
large hail will be the primary threats. Hailstones of greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible locally, mainly over far
northeast Colorado and far northwest Kansas, where the combination
of instability and shear appears to be maximized.
..Broyles.. 08/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LBF…UNR…GLD…BOU…
LAT…LON 41640244 40420263 39900254 39570221 39510183 39620134
40040105 41390060 42350032 42910030 43230057 43410129
43350191 43170218 42840231 41640244
