MD 0195 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024
Areas affected…Far eastern Georgia into South Carolina
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 061841Z – 062045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Strengthening thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind and
hail threat across parts of far eastern Georgia into portions of
South Carolina over the next several hours. This threat is expected
to remain sufficiently limited to negate the need for a watch.
DISCUSSION…Shallow convection across central GA has shown signs of
intensification over the past 30-60 minutes based on lightning and
cloud-top temperature trends. This is likely in response to gradual
destabilization across the region as temperatures warm into the low
to mid 70s to the south of a lingering surface trough/frontal
boundary. Low-level warming appears to be somewhat faster than
depicted by recent guidance, suggesting that the downstream
environment is becoming increasingly favorable for sustained
convection. Although low-level winds are fairly meager based on
regional VWP and ACAR observations, 30-40 knot winds above 3 km
should elongate hodographs sufficiently to support organized
convection. Semi-discrete cells and clusters appear most probable
given the unfocused forcing for ascent under the based of a
mid-level trough, and should pose a threat for severe hail (most
likely between 1.0 to 1.5 inches) and damaging winds – especially by
late afternoon when low-level lapse rates will be greatest. The
nebulous forcing for ascent casts some uncertainty onto overall
storm coverage, which is supported by recent CAMs. Because of this,
the spatial threat should remain focused to far eastern GA into
southern/eastern SC. Watch issuance is not anticipated given this
limitation.
..Moore/Hart.. 03/06/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ILM…CHS…CAE…FFC…
LAT…LON 32258067 32258140 32418187 32788215 33548209 33978157
34378021 34247936 33837890 33397902 33147910 32887945
32398028 32258067
