SPC MD 1962

SPC MD 1962


Mesoscale Discussion 1962
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected…Parts of the OH Valley

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 121253Z – 121430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Some threat for isolated hail and damaging gusts will
persist into mid morning. Some portions of the region may see a
greater severe risk later today.

DISCUSSION…At 1245 UTC, a broad arc of convection is ongoing from
central/southern IN into far southern IL and southeast MO. The
southwestern storms are associated with a remnant MCS and related
outflow that earlier produced wind damage near St. Louis. Moderate
downstream buoyancy may support an isolated damaging-wind threat as
storms move into western KY/TN, though widespread cloudiness will
tend to delay stronger destabilization and steepening of low-level
lapse rates.

Storms across central/southern IN within a low-level warm advection
regime are somewhat more intense and less influenced by outflow.
Mid/upper-level flow and deep-layer shear is also somewhat stronger
across IN/OH compared to areas farther southwest, and a marginal
elevated supercell or two will be possible with a threat of isolated
large hail and locally damaging gusts through mid morning.

Near-term watch issuance is considered unlikely, due to the isolated
nature of the ongoing threats. Depending on trends regarding diurnal
destabilization and potential transition from elevated to
surface-based convection, portions of this region may see a greater
severe threat later today.

..Dean/Edwards.. 08/12/2023

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 37279069 37178952 37808771 38658687 39978639 40118528
39818460 39448426 39008423 38258471 37438562 36458687
36048813 35978921 36059031 36169055 36409083 37279069

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