MD 1967 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN CO…NORTHEASTERN NM…SOUTHWESTERN KS…AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1967
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023
Areas affected…southeastern CO…northeastern NM…southwestern
KS…and the TX/OK Panhandles
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 121902Z – 122100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected this
afternoon, bringing a threat for severe wind gusts and hail. A WW is
possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorm development is currently underway,
primarily focused along the higher terrain (Sangre de Cristo
Mountains in CO and NM) as well as a separate boundary-layer-mixing
regime in the TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity. Updraft development
recently began just east of the terrain features in NM, indicating
sufficiently deep boundary-layer mixing and CIN erosion. Modest
lapse rates reside above the boundary layer, contributing to MLCAPE
around 1000-1500 J/kg. The shear profile is expected to remain
steady throughout the afternoon with ground-relative flow generally
less than 30 kts throughout the troposphere. However, steadily
deepening updrafts will be subject to deeper shear layers,
ultimately resulting in generally eastward propagation. Dry,
well-mixed profiles should support a primarily severe-wind threat,
with some hail potential with the strongest cores. A watch will
likely be needed at some point this afternoon to address these
threats across the region.
..Flournoy/Smith.. 08/12/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DDC…GLD…LUB…AMA…PUB…ABQ…
LAT…LON 36840477 37810450 38480372 38550187 37970078 37190023
35550008 34570039 34210127 34310285 34870392 35680456
36840477
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