MD 1982 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1982
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023
Areas affected…central Kansas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 131944Z – 132145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorm initiation is expected by the late afternoon
hours over central Kansas. While timing remains uncertain, a watch
issuance will likely be needed given a favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment for severe storms.
DISCUSSION…19 UTC surface analysis places a surface low to the
north/northeast of the Dodge City, KS area with an attendant cold
(warm) front draped to the southwest (east/northeast). Warm sector
temperatures in the vicinity of the low have risen to the upper 80s
over the past hour, which should be approaching adequate
temperatures to erode mixed-layer inhibition per RAP forecast
soundings. This idea is supported by recent visible satellite
imagery, which has show a stead increase in coverage and vertical
depth of cumulus along the warm front and ahead of a diffuse surface
trough. While convective initiation does not appear immediately
imminent, these trends suggest that thunderstorm development is
likely by late afternoon as destabilization and lift along the
frontal boundaries continue.
MLCAPE values should approach 2000-3000 J/kg by the time of CI, and
35-45 knot mid-level flow atop relatively weak boundary-layer winds
will support adequate deep-layer shear for organized convection. The
zonal flow regime aloft will favor largely along-boundary deep-layer
shear and initial storm motion vectors, favoring initially discrete
cells along the cold front and a tendency for upscale growth into
clusters along the warm front. Initial cells along the warm front
may realize ambient low-level vorticity present along the boundary,
and become sufficiently organized to pose a tornado threat prior to
upscale growth. Otherwise, a large hail/severe wind threat should
materialize across much of central KS. The timing of watch issuance
remains uncertain, but will likely be needed by the late afternoon
hours across central KS.
..Moore/Guyer.. 08/13/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TOP…ICT…GID…DDC…GLD…
LAT…LON 37099907 37029958 37080020 37170074 37500087 38560029
39559978 39929909 39989794 39279654 38949620 38569632
37739759 37299846 37099907
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