MD 1984 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1984
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023
Areas affected…the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 132003Z – 132200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Developing thunderstorms across the western Texas
Panhandle and northeast New Mexico will migrate into a more unstable
air mass in the coming hours. As this occurs, the potential for
severe wind will increase. Watch issuance is possible in the coming
hours.
DISCUSSION…Over the past 1-2 hours, GOES visible imagery and
regional radars have shown deepening cumulus and the initial stages
of convective initiation across northeast New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle along a diffuse lee surface trough and a southward-surging
cold front. Most storms are developing on the periphery of richer
boundary-layer moisture where dewpoints have mixed out to the upper
50s and low 60s, and LCLs are estimated to be between 2-3 km. A
combination of dry, well-mixed boundary-layer conditions and modest
shear throughout the column should favor outflow-dominant storms
with the potential for strong to severe downburst winds.
Re-development along outflow boundaries appears probable given
continued downstream destabilization (diminishing MLCIN is noted in
recent RAP mesoanalyses with MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg across
western OK). Consequently, the severe wind potential is expected to
spread to the east/northeast through the late afternoon and evening
hours. A more localized severe hail threat may materialize across
the northern Panhandle region into southwest KS where mid-level flow
is slightly stronger, resulting in more elongated hodographs,
however, this potential may be modulated by a more clustered storm
mode along the cold front. Watch issuance is possible in the coming
hours to address these concerns.
..Moore/Guyer.. 08/13/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OUN…DDC…LUB…AMA…
LAT…LON 35519886 34919951 34689990 34560023 34500184 34540220
34750245 35090267 36270263 36500248 36990140 37130078
37139889 36949862 36709840 36159849 35519886
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