MD 1986 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IL INTO…SOUTHWESTERN IN…AND FAR NORTHWEST KY
Mesoscale Discussion 1986
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023
Areas affected…portions of southern IL into…southwestern
IN…and far northwest KY
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 132334Z – 140100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible along and
south of the frontal zone through this evening. Severe coverage is
expected to remain low and a weather watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION…As of 2325 UTC, regional radar analysis showed
scattered thunderstorms were slowly intensifying along a frontal
zone across the mid MS and lower OH Valleys. Early day convection
and lingering cloud cover has resulted in stunted heating through
much of the afternoon. As a result, buoyancy is not particularly
large around 500-1000 J/kg despite surface dewpoints in the mid 70s
F. A few storms have managed to develop and slowly intensify along
the front over the last hour. Area VADs are supportive of storm
organization with 40-45 kt of effective shear. Deep-layer shear will
support transient supercell structures capable of isolated hail and
a few damaging gusts. The coverage of organized storms appears low
given the limited buoyancy and WW is unlikely.
..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/13/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…IND…PAH…ILX…LSX…
LAT…LON 38458988 38878959 38898898 38708828 38498775 38238743
37998733 37618741 37488775 37518826 37628892 37758915
38078970 38188979 38458988
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