MD 1987 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642…643… FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS…NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1987
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023
Areas affected…southeastern Kansas…northern Oklahoma and
adjacent southwestern Missouri
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642…643…
Valid 140015Z – 140215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642, 643
continues.
SUMMARY…Increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development is
expected into the 8-10 PM CDT time frame, including gradually
organizing clusters posing a risk for severe wind. Trends are being
monitored for an additional severe weather watch across northeastern
Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri.
DISCUSSION…Downstream of a significant short wave troughing
digging across the Dakotas, the leading edge of stronger low-level
cold advection has already surged through much of northern/western
Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity. Near/just ahead
of this regime, scattered deepening convective development is
evident from west of Medicine Lodge through the Chanute vicinity.
At the same time, a gradually consolidating cluster of storms is
spreading east-northeast of the eastern Texas Panhandle vicinity,
with another developing cluster from an initial supercell
propagating east-southeast of Emporia.
Through 01-03Z, large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by weak
low-level warm advection ahead of the developing cold front, appears
likely to continue to gradually overcome mid-level inhibition
associated with relatively warm mid-levels. In the presence of a
seasonably warm and moist boundary layer characterized by large CAPE
on the order of 2000-3000+ J/kg, increasing and intensifying
thunderstorm development appears likely. Near the southern
periphery of the westerlies, 30-40 kt of deep-layer vertical shear
probably will contribute to organizing clusters with potential to
produce severe wind.
..Kerr.. 08/14/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…SGF…TSA…ICT…OUN…DDC…
LAT…LON 36889973 37819611 37659348 36769394 35879742 35419974
35639988 36239945 36889973
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