MD 1989 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 644…645… FOR NORTHEAST OK INTO NORTHERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1989
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023
Areas affected…Northeast OK into northern AR
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644…645…
Valid 140635Z – 140800Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644, 645
continues.
SUMMARY…Some threat for severe gusts will spread into northwest AR
overnight. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent of the threat
into north-central AR, but downstream watch issuance remains
possible.
DISCUSSION…Two bowing storm clusters with a history of producing
severe gusts are moving across northeast OK at 0630 UTC. These
clusters will move into northwest AR through the early morning
hours, with MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and effective shear 30-40 kt
remaining generally supportive for organized convection. However, as
these clusters move eastward and convective outflow sags southward
immediately downstream, convection may tend to become increasingly
elevated with time. Despite this, given the current organized state
of the ongoing convection, some severe-gust potential is expected to
spread into northwest AR over the next 1-2 hours.
As outflow continues to move southward in advance of the ongoing
storm clusters, a gradual weakening trend will be possible with
time. As a result, severe-wind potential into north-central AR
remains uncertain, but watch issuance into this region remains
possible depending on short-term observational trends.
..Dean/Edwards.. 08/14/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LZK…SGF…TSA…
LAT…LON 35679158 35609408 35659491 35879545 36269584 36659575
36639381 36659201 36639168 36469142 36059146 35809151
35679158
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