MD 1992 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL TO EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1992
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023
Areas affected…Central to eastern Virginia and northeast North
Carolina
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 141755Z – 142000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Developing thunderstorms across central Virginia and
northeastern North Carolina may pose a damaging wind threat through
the late afternoon hours. Watch issuance is possible if a
substantial severe threat becomes apparent.
DISCUSSION…Over the past 2 hours, a broken line of convection has
slowly intensified along a diffuse trough axis across central VA
with a notable jump in lightning activity and cooling cloud top
temperatures over the past 30 minutes. Additional cells are
developing across far northern NC, also along the trough axis. This
intensifying trend is expected to continue amid strong diurnal
heating downstream across eastern VA and northeast NC where
temperatures have already warmed into the low 90s and mid-70s
dewpoints. 12 UTC observed soundings and recent RAP forecast
sounding all indicate that mid-level lapse rates are somewhat meager
(near 5 C/km), and strong mid-level flow remains displaced to the
west closer to the upper wave. Consequently, the potential for
robust, organized convection appears modest. However, the
combination steepening low-level lapse rates and slowly improving
deep-layer shear through late afternoon will support a damaging wind
threat downstream into eastern VA and adjacent areas of northeast
NC. Trends will be monitored, and a watch issuance is possible if a
substantial/widespread severe threat becomes apparent.
..Moore/Hart.. 08/14/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…AKQ…MHX…LWX…RAH…RNK…
LAT…LON 35737931 35927943 36237935 36397918 36637896 37117866
37367856 37597850 37947856 38517856 38747838 38957793
38897737 38497695 37947626 37337625 37017611 36527584
36047629 35317781 35297831 35357871 35737931
Comments