MD 1995 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1995
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023
Areas affected…Southern Indiana
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 142056Z – 142300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms developing along a cold front may pose an
isolated hail and wind risk this afternoon and evening. However,
watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms developing along a cold front across the
Midwest have been slow to mature over the past few hours, but
imagery from KIND has shown improving organization of a few cells
over the past 30-60 minutes. Temperatures warming into the low 80s
ahead of the cold front have allowed MLCAPE values to increase to
around 1000 J/kg, and recent forecast soundings and KIND VWP
observations show elongated, nearly straight hodographs with
effective bulk shear near 45 knots. The strongly sheared environment
may compensate for the otherwise marginal buoyancy and support
sufficient storm organization for a large hail/severe wind threat.
Initially discrete cells have shown a tendency for slow upscale
growth, and this trend should continue into the evening hours, which
may modulate the severe threat to some degree. Storms moving into
central IN they will likely encounter a noted buoyancy gradient
along a warm front, which should limit the northward extent of the
severe threat. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated given
modest downstream buoyancy and lackluster storm organization thus
far.
..Moore/Hart.. 08/14/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ILN…LMK…IND…PAH…ILX…
LAT…LON 38038831 39118739 39778695 40098660 40058573 39858490
39498478 38868518 38298585 38028649 37858709 37788762
37788802 38038831
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