MD 2002 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Areas affected...portions of central into eastern South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 220505Z - 220730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail are possible tonight with
the stronger elevated storms that develop.
DISCUSSION...A few storms have shown some strengthening over the
past couple of hours in eastern SD, with 40-50 dBZ echoes
approaching 50 kft per MRMS mosaic radar data, which is also
suggesting that hail may be approaching 1 inch in diameter.
Furthermore, a mid-level vortmax is ejecting from the northern High
Plains and is rapidly approaching central SD, which will aid in the
initiation of additional storms through tonight. The ambient
environment is characterized by over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-50 kts
of effective bulk shear (originating from modestly curved
hodographs). As such, any new storms that can develop and intensify
later tonight may become elevated supercells capable of producing
some severe hail. A severe gust or two also cannot be ruled out.
However, the severe threat should be isolated overall, and a WW
issuance is not currently expected.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/22/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
LAT...LON 44219679 43859780 43699891 43820249 43990317 44320357
44370365 45030358 45310326 45520030 45529953 45499826
45459759 45109689 44639658 44219679
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
