MD 2003 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2003
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023
Areas affected…parts of the Florida Panhandle…southeastern
Alabama and southwest Georgia.
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 152151Z – 152345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Scattered thunderstorms have produced occasional damaging
gusts this afternoon and will likely remain capable of isolated wind
damage into this evening. Given the lack of storm organization, a
weather watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION…Across portions of the Southeast, scattered to numerous
thunderstorms were ongoing ahead of a frontal zone across the FL
Panhandle, southeast AL and southwest GA. Over the last couple of
hours, occasional strong to severe gusts (59 mph at KMAI) have been
noted with a few of these storms. A strongly unstable environment,
with 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE is supporting, and is expected to
continue supporting, strong updrafts through this evening. However,
with little vertical shear, storm organization has remained limited
to pulse multi-cell clusters. The strong buoyancy and PWATs over 2
inches will support the risk for isolated wet microbursts with the
strongest storms. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible into
this evening before nocturnal stabilization begins to limit the
potential for strong updrafts. Given the limited potential for storm
organizational, and the lack of broader synoptic support, a weather
watch is unlikely.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 08/15/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FFC…TAE…BMX…MOB…
LAT…LON 30858645 30968642 31348582 31618541 31948486 32048454
32078339 31948295 31818298 31328325 30768386 30488430
30358475 30298536 30438605 30628638 30698642 30858645
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