Mesoscale Discussion 2004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023
Areas affected…portions of northern and central PA into western NY
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 152305Z – 160100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated
damaging gusts, small hail, and/or a brief tornado this evening.
Storm coverage should remain low and a watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION…Over the last 30 minutes, regional radar and satellite
analysis showed incipient thunderstorms were intensifying ahead of
an occluded front across portions of northern PA and far western NY
State. Beneath a slow moving upper low, afternoon heating and
steepening low-level lapse rates have resulted in weak buoyancy
(MLCAPE ~500-700 J/kg) developing across the region. While not
overly robust, a few stronger updrafts will likely persist this
evening beneath the upper low. Vertical shear profiles are also not
overly strong, but sufficient to support occasional storm
organization. Storms should remain isolated in coverage, with the
strongest capable of occasional damaging gusts and or small hail.
Plentiful vertical vorticity may also allow for some weak updraft
rotation with the strongest storms. Cold air funnel clouds and
perhaps a brief tornado will also be possible. Given that storm
coverage is expected to remain isolated and the environment favors
only a low-end threat for organized storms, a weather watch is not
anticipated this evening.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 41397976 41608039 41998027 42328002 43297935 43617884
43707810 43457708 43087658 42007623 41197603 40867621
40627651 40707678 41027696 41517719 41757768 41937850
41977886 41707919 41397976