SPC MD 2005

SPC MD 2005

MD 2005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 2005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023

Areas affected…Portions of central and northern Minnesota

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible

Valid 162039Z – 162315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent

SUMMARY…Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
evening.

DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms are expected to develop along or perhaps
slightly behind a cold front across northern Minnesota late this
afternoon or early this evening. This region continues to
destabilize with MLCAPE around 750 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and it is
expected to increase to as high as 1500 J/kg later this evening.
Currently the airmass remains capped, but additional surface heating
and cooling temperatures aloft should mostly eliminate inhibition by
around 22 UTC. Once storms form, strong mid-level flow at least
partially normal to the front should support a broken line of
supercells. Instability will start to wane quickly after sunset and
a drier airmass is present across Wisconsin. Therefore, storms may
persist for a few hours after dark but are expected to weaken by
late evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat from this activity.

..Bentley/Hart.. 08/16/2023

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…DLH…MPX…FGF…

LAT…LON 48319083 48179010 48078967 47878965 47389035 46759087
46349152 45559288 45439399 45419512 45539551 45689571
46129523 47299386 48299245 48449212 48159152 48229110
48319083

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