MD 2014 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 2014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023
Areas affected…Northwest Arizona
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 182024Z – 182200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorm clustering may lead to an increasing
potential for strong to severe wind gusts across northwest Arizona
over the next 1-2 hours. However, watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Imagery over the past hour from KESX has depicted an
outflow boundary migrating eastward into western AZ, leading to a
burst of convection within the past 30 minutes. This more
consolidated line of thunderstorms will likely reinforce the outflow
boundary and may lead to cold-pool-driven propagation of the line
into northwest AZ. Buoyancy and deep-layer shear remain very limited
across the region, but steepening low-level lapse rates and dewpoint
depressions between 30-40 F indicate that downstream low-level
thermodynamic profiles are favorable for downdraft accelerations via
evaporative cooling. Consequently, the potential for strong to
severe downburst wind gusts may regionally increase over the next
1-2 hours given the increasing concentration of storms. KESX
velocity imagery has shown a few embedded pockets of enhanced
outflow over the past 15 minutes, which supports this general idea.
However, given the meager thermodynamic and kinematic environment,
this threat will likely remain fairly localized and transient,
precluding the need for a watch.
..Moore/Grams.. 08/18/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FGZ…SLC…VEF…
LAT…LON 36841259 36421232 36031239 35791258 35611289 35471335
35491359 35781387 36031406 36201426 36461426 36661422
36861404 36971369 37001310 36841259
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