MD 2021 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL AZ
Mesoscale Discussion 2021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023
Areas affected…Southeast/East-Central AZ
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 211958Z – 212230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts may develop across
east-central and southeast Arizona this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…Recent visible satellite imagery shows some deepening
cumulus across southeast/east-central AZ, between more widespread
cumulus over the higher terrain near the AZ/NM border and a more
persistent north/south oriented cloud band across central AZ.
This persistent cloudiness has tempered heating and destabilization
across central AZ thus far, but partly cloudy skies have allow
modest destabilization across south-central/southeast AZ. Further
destabilization is anticipated throughout the afternoon, and
moisture convergence along this differential heating zone is
expected to result in convective initiation. Strong low to mid-level
flow extends throughout this region as well, with recent
mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear from 35 to 45 kt. As
such, any storms that area able to deepen and persist could become
organized/supercellular with the potential to produce damaging
gusts. Overall coverage of strong to severe storms appears it will
remain isolated, likely precluding the need for a watch.
..Mosier/Grams.. 08/21/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TWC…FGZ…PSR…
LAT…LON 31411103 32831163 34271174 34881159 35241114 35111033
34540989 33500953 32700927 32180920 31470925 31340973
31411103
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