MD 2030 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 653… FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023
Areas affected…Parts of northwest and north-central North Dakota
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653…
Valid 240003Z – 240130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653
continues.
SUMMARY…The severe threat continues across parts of northwest into
north-central North Dakota.
DISCUSSION…Latest surface observations and satellite imagery
depict a modifying warm frontal zone extending east-southeastward
across parts of north-central ND. Along and south of the frontal
zone, a corridor of high theta-e air is in place — characterized by
upper 80s/lower 90s temperatures and upper 60s dewpoints. As a
cluster of slowly evolving/organizing storms over parts of northwest
ND tracks generally east-southeastward through this corridor, a
modest increase in storm intensity is possible. While a long/mostly
straight hodograph (45-55 kt of effective shear) will favor
organized clusters and splitting supercell structures, left-movers
may have a tendency to drift to the cooler/stable side of the
surface boundary. Any right-moving storms that maintain residence
time along/immediately south of the front will pose a risk for large
hail (up to 2 inches with maintained supercell structures) and
locally severe gusts.
..Weinman.. 08/24/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…BIS…
LAT…LON 47600163 47840194 48000209 48240205 48530190 48580184
48640161 48620147 48500112 48040051 47720039 47460056
47390091 47600163
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