MD 2031 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 2031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0917 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023
Areas affected…Eastern Ohio
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 240217Z – 240415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Gusty winds and marginally severe hail will accompany an
MCS as it advances south across eastern Ohio this evening.
DISCUSSION…Large complex of storms has evolved within a
warm-advection regime from east of Detroit, southeast across eastern
Ohio into northern WV. This activity continues to expand in areal
coverage which is reinforcing a surface boundary that currently
extends from south of CKB-PKB-MFD-west of DTX. This activity is
elevated atop a cooler, rain-cooled air mass over the upper OH
Valley, but sustained westerly LLJ should continue to generate new
updrafts over southeast lower MI into the western parts of Lake
Erie. This activity should gradually propagate into a less favorable
environment near the OH River, where low-level warm advection should
remain somewhat weaker through the night. Even so, steep mid-level
lapse rates (greater than 7 C/km) will continue to spread into the
back side of this slow-moving MCS such that fresh updrafts are
expected along the northwestern flank. The most robust updrafts
could generate hail near one inch and gusty winds may accompany the
leading edge of the MCS. Otherwise, heavy rain appears to be the
primary risk with this activity, and unless unexpected
intensification occurs, severe thunderstorm watch is not currently
expected.
..Darrow/Hart.. 08/24/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…PBZ…RLX…CLE…ILN…
LAT…LON 41508170 39828087 39468182 41748311 41508170
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