SPC MD 2038

SPC MD 2038


Mesoscale Discussion 2038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

Areas affected…The western Dakotas into northwest Nebraska

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 242041Z – 242245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop through the
late afternoon and into the early evening. Thunderstorm coverage
will likely remain too limited to warrant watch issuance, but strong
to severe winds and large hail are possible.

DISCUSSION…Latest GOES visible imagery shows gradually deepening
cumulus along a surface trough from southwest ND into western
NE/southeast WY. Parts of this region – mainly the SD/NE border area
– have been slow to destabilize due to residual cloud cover, but
MLCIN has been steadily diminishing amid boundary-layer warming as
temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s. Recent forecast
soundings suggest temperatures in the low 90s are required to
completely remove mixed-layer inhibition, which is slowly ongoing
per recent surface observations. Consequently, thermodynamic
profiles should steadily become more favorable for initiation and
maintenance of convection over the next couple of hours.

Forcing for ascent over the region is expected to remain fairly
modest as the main synoptic trough passes to the north along the
international border. This will likely limit storm coverage and
maintain an fairly isolated severe threat, and storm motions off the
surface trough will favor more initially discrete storm modes. 30-40
knot mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the upper wave will
support effective bulk shear values near 35 knots, favorable for
supercells with an attendant severe wind/hail risk. More deeply
mixed low-level profiles across southwest SD into NE will likely
support accelerating downdrafts via evaporative cooling processes.
In turn, this may support a locally-higher potential for strong to
severe gusts. Regardless, given the expected limited coverage of
storms, watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Moore/Grams.. 08/24/2023

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 43560378 45000355 46110332 46640274 46620139 45900099
44550128 43150162 41790267 41770316 42020365 42220427
42620450 43560378

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