MD 2041 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656… FOR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023
Areas affected…Southern Michigan
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 656…
Valid 250008Z – 250145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 656
continues.
SUMMARY…Severe threat continues within WW656.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorm coverage has increased along the warm
front across the Michigan Peninsula and more diffuse front across
Lake Michigan. Given the presence of frontal forcing as the main
mechanism, it is likely that a mixed storm mode of multi-cell and
supercells will cluster and attempt upscale growth along outflow as
they advance southward. Before transition to upscale growth, any
cells that can remain semi-discrete will pose a risk of large hail
and damaging wind. Deep layer shear and appreciable instability
across the lower Michigan Peninsula is supportive of some initial
tornado risk, with deep layer shear around 30-40 kts and curved
hodographs. The VAD profile from KGRR has observed 0-1km storm
relative helicity around 150 m2/s2. With upscale growth, the main
threats will likely shift to damaging winds and hail. Though,
embedded mesovorticies may continue within the line.
..Thornton/Hart.. 08/25/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DTX…APX…IWX…GRR…
LAT…LON 43138693 43308667 43528626 43708595 43898517 43928454
43928390 43888333 43768293 43578270 43338267 42998281
42748295 42508311 42258330 41988370 41818412 41798465
41778510 41768559 41808622 41848664 42078694 42288712
42628716 42768713 43138693
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