Mesoscale Discussion 2045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023
Areas affected…Southern OH…Eastern KY…Western WV/VA
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 251831Z – 252030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Strong to locally severe storms may increase through the
afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind.
DISCUSSION…To the west of a long-lived storm cluster across
southwest WV, storms have recently intensified along two east-west
oriented bands across northern KY, with additional building cumulus
noted closer to the primary cold front across southern OH. Strong
heating of a richly moist low-level environment has resulted in
strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg along/south of
the cold front and west of the outflow across western WV. Additional
storm development will be possible through the afternoon, including
across parts of southeast OH into western WV within the modifying
outflow later this afternoon.
Evolution of convection remains uncertain through the afternoon,
within a strongly unstable but somewhat weakly forced environment.
Strong buoyancy and large PW will support a wet microburst threat
through the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is modest at best, but 25-35
kt west-northwesterly flow in the 2-4 km layer (as noted in regional
VWPs) may aid in the development of one or more outflow-driven
clusters with time, potentially resulting in a somewhat greater
coverage of wind-damage potential. At this time, the threat appears
too marginal/isolated for watch issuance, though trends will be
monitored for any more notable clustering/upscale growth with time.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 36708228 36998486 37548519 38068525 39328471 39338429
39498282 39518203 39268145 39148137 38158115 37088130