MD 2045 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL UT AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ID
Mesoscale Discussion 2045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024
Areas affected…southwestern WY into north-central UT and extreme
southeastern ID
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 031831Z – 032030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Scattered thunderstorm development is underway across
southwestern WY into extreme southeastern ID and north-central UT.
This is expected to continue through the afternoon with some severe
gusts possible with the strongest storms. The overall threat is
expected to remain low, and a watch is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION…Numerous towering updrafts have developed in the last
hour along the higher terrain across central UT and eastern NV per
visible satellite imagery. These maturing storms are driven by
diurnal heating and a weakening mid-level trough propagating
eastward through the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers abound
in this environment, as characterized by short-term RAP and NAM
forecast profiles. Steadily increasing westerly flow is anticipated
as the mid-level trough approaches, yielding relatively
unidirectional 0-6-km shear around 25+ kts. This should support some
updraft organization and rotation, possibly including transient,
high-based supercell structures. Localized severe wind gusts are
possible with microbursts forming from stronger cores that encourage
descent through the deep, well-mixed boundary layer. This severe
risk should continue through peak heating, but the overall threat is
expected to remain rather marginal, and a watch appears unlikely at
this time.
..Flournoy/Squitieri/Smith.. 09/03/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…RIW…GJT…SLC…PIH…
LAT…LON 41221266 42161163 42981038 42980935 41890877 40480916
39461034 38791144 38741273 39551381 40691337 41221266
