MD 2046 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN…WESTERN HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023
Areas affected…northern Wisconsin…western half of the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 251832Z – 252030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated large hail (diameters 1 to 1.5 inches) and
damaging gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger storms
this afternoon. The isolated coverage of expected severe
thunderstorm activity will preclude the need for a small severe
thunderstorm watch.
DISCUSSION…Visible-satellite imagery shows a couple of storms from
far northern WI east into the western part of the U.P. of MI ahead
of a mid-level shortwave trough. Sunny skies continue to promote
heating downstream of the ongoing convection, and temperatures are
warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s deg F.
Objective analysis indicates around 500 J/kg MLCAPE over northern WI
and adjacent MI. As the boundary layer continues to warm and
destabilize through mid afternoon, MLCAPE is forecast to range from
500-1000 J/kg over the region. Effective shear magnitudes 40-45 kt
will act to organize updrafts. The more intense updrafts will be
capable of an isolated severe threat. A couple of weak supercells
and multicells are possible with the severe threat associated solely
with these storm modes.
..Smith/Thompson.. 08/25/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MQT…GRB…DLH…
LAT…LON 46659114 46818976 46578747 46278686 45898675 45648701
45518740 45979120 46159151 46389151 46659114
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