MD 2060 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023
Areas affected…Western Florida Peninsula
Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely
Valid 292344Z – 300215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…A tornado threat is expected to develop across the western
Florida Peninsula this evening. Once the tornado threat begins to
develop, a tornado watch will be needed, likely later this evening.
DISCUSSION…Hurricane Idalia will continue to move
north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening.
The outer bands of Hurricane Idalia will begin to impact the western
coast of Florida in a few hours. As these bands move into the
coastal areas later this evening, strong low-level shear will be
maintained as a low-level speed max brushes the coast. The latest
WSR-88D VWP at Tampa Bay has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500
m2/s2, and RAP forecast soundings increase low-level shear along the
western coast from south to north over the next few hours. This
suggests that discrete cells embedded in the outerbands of Idalia
may develop tornado potential. The threat is forecast to gradually
transition northward to the area southwest of Gainsville, Florida by
late evening.
..Broyles/Hart.. 08/29/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…MLB…TBW…JAX…TAE…
LAT…LON 29338228 29528253 29578272 29558293 29478306 29318308
29198306 29008291 28468281 28018293 27588285 26718242
26418192 26758124 28508194 29338228
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