MD 2071 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN AZ
Mesoscale Discussion 2071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
Areas affected…southern AZ
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 312323Z – 010130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts ranging from
60-70 mph are possible this evening as storms slowly move northwest
into richer moisture.
DISCUSSION…Visible-satellite imagery shows a small developing
cluster of thunderstorms near I-19 in southern AZ and other
developing thunderstorms northeast of Tucson. Water-vapor imagery
shows a mid-level anticyclone centered over NM and a mid- to
upper-level trough situated west of Baja California. A belt of
perhaps marginally enhanced southeasterly 500-mb flow appears to be
over southeast AZ (15-20 kt per the KEMX VAD). The developing
thunderstorms are within the eastern periphery of a plume of richer
moisture protruding northward from the Gulf of California into the
lower CO River Valley and southwest AZ.
Surface observations across southern AZ are hot with temperatures in
the 100s deg F and dewpoints generally in the 50s. The 22 UTC 1Y7
(Yuma, AZ) raob showed very steep low- to mid-level lapse rates (in
excess of 8 deg C/km from the surface to 500 mb). The very steep
lapse rates and inverted-v profile over southern AZ will support
strong to severe downdrafts with peak gusts in the 60-70 mph range
with the stronger cores this evening.
..Smith/Grams.. 08/31/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TWC…PSR…
LAT…LON 31881287 32441278 33041242 33211200 33141119 32901094
32381089 31491154 31881287
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