MD 2072 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST CA…SOUTHERN NV…NORTHWEST AZ…SOUTHWEST UT
Mesoscale Discussion 2072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
Areas affected…southeast CA…southern NV…northwest
AZ…southwest UT
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 312342Z – 010145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Localized severe gusts 60-70 mph are possible with the
more intense dry microbursts. The disorganized character of the
storm mode and lack of more appreciable storm clustering and
cold-pool organization will limit the overall threat and need for a
severe thunderstorm watch.
DISCUSSION…Satellite imagery shows intensifying thunderstorms in
the vicinity of the NV/AZ border. This thunderstorm activity is
located between a mid-level trough over northern CA and a mid-level
anticyclone centered over NM. Very large surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads (50-60 deg F) are observed late this
afternoon within the discussion area, which is located on the
northern periphery of moisture plume over the lower CO River Valley.
Very steep lapse rates and inverted-v profiles will favor
evaporative cooling and the potential for dry microbursts capable of
localized severe gusts with the stronger cores. This activity will
likely weaken by the mid evening hours as surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads lessen and some convective overturning
has occurred.
..Smith/Grams.. 08/31/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FGZ…SLC…VEF…
LAT…LON 35341622 35761596 35811588 37451407 37361322 37111280
36601250 36201261 35651294 35051418 34871586 35031617
35341622
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