MD 2076 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NV…NORTHWEST UT…AND FAR SOUTHEAST ID
Mesoscale Discussion 2076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Sun Sep 03 2023
Areas affected…Central into northeast NV…northwest UT…and far
southeast ID
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 031832Z – 032100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Severe-storm risk will increase from west to east this
afternoon, with severe gusts and hail possible. A watch is possible
in the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION…Latest regional radar data shows a swath of convection
with several embedded/transient deeper cores spreading northward
across the northern half of NV this afternoon. This activity is
generally focused near a north/south-oriented surface
trough/stationary front and within an area of maximized
DCVA/midlevel ascent (evident in water vapor imagery) preceding a
substantial midlevel trough over northern CA/OR.
As the midlevel trough and related height falls gradually spread
eastward across eastern NV and eventually UT through the afternoon
and evening, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will spread/expand
east-northeastward across the region. Filtered heating and related
destabilization of a very moist air mass across the northern half of
NV, coupled with a long/straight hodograph (40-50 kt of effective
shear), will support a mix of organized clusters/line segments and
supercell structures. Severe gusts are the primary concern with this
activity, though instances of severe hail are also possible —
especially with any sustained supercell structures. With time,
thunderstorms should increase in both intensity and coverage as they
spread/develop east-northeastward into northwest UT this
afternoon/evening — in concert with the ejecting midlevel trough.
Here, less cloud coverage and stronger diurnal heating may
eventually support a relatively higher severe-wind threat, as storms
intercept an increasingly mixed boundary layer amid favorable
deep-layer shear.
A watch is possible for parts of the area in the next couple of
hours.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/03/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…SLC…PIH…BOI…LKN…REV…
LAT…LON 41581549 41021665 40721713 40441735 40011742 39421731
38981690 38771628 38901508 39331378 39641285 39971215
40341161 40831125 41641109 42071124 42471169 42611216
42541273 42351345 41971461 41581549
Comments