MD 0208 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0208
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024
Areas affected…southeastern Alabama into southwestern Georgia and
the eastern Florida Panhandle
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 090144Z – 090415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…The area across southeastern Alabama into southwestern
Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle will be monitored for
potential severe risk later this evening into the early morning.
DISCUSSION…A large area of ongoing convection along a stationary
front draped across the Gulf northward into portions of southern
Mississippi and southern/central Alabama has struggled to organize
this evening given the poor thermodynamic profiles as the warm
sector has struggled to advance inland. Dew points are largely in
the mid -60s along the immediate coast of Florida into southern
Alabama/Georgia. Shear profiles have remained supportive of more
organized convection but forcing along the stationary boundary in
tandem with the main upper level wave has led to multi-cell clusters
with transient embedded rotation.
Through the rest of the evening/early morning, this area of
convection is expected to move east and northeast. CAMs continue to
indicate the possibility of addition thunderstorm development
overnight, with potential for more discrete supercell development as
better moisture works inland. Given the favorable shear profiles,
with effective SRH around 200-300 m2/s2, it is possible that an
isolated tornado risk could persist into the early morning. Given
uncertainty on thermodynamics and redevelopment/storm mode, this
area will need to be monitored for watch potential in the coming
hours.
..Thornton/Thompson.. 03/09/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FFC…TAE…BMX…MOB…
LAT…LON 30578491 30238627 30248779 30488789 30868793 31518729
31758698 32038623 32088559 32108514 32118486 31988458
31748441 31288445 30938450 30688457 30578491
